Arthouse Studio
Arthouse Studio
This project seeks to understand how climate change and local weather patterns from the previous year affect the timing and synchrony of calving within and between caribou herds, and to better define what a "calving ground" is. Female caribou who experienced adverse weather during the previous winter (for example deep, soft snow that is difficult to move through) may not reach their herd's calving grounds before their calf is born, which may result in lower calf survival. The "calving ground" of a caribou herd is the area where most of the herd gives birth each year. However, there have been many approaches to defining and mapping calving grounds, which makes it difficult for caribou managers and land use planners to know which areas to protect from development or other land use so that calving is not disrupted. Using statistical modeling and a comprehensive literature review, this project investigated the mechanisms driving the timing of calving, and to developed a biologically-driven, reproducible method for delineating calving grounds. The results from this work are in the process of being published.
Lead: Dr. Ophélie Couriot
Ros
This project is part of a multi-stage effort to map changes in the composition and biomass of vegetation across a broad spatial extent of Arctic Alaska and Canada using satellite imagery. As the climate warms and wildlife populations shift, many ecological mechanisms are interacting to change the prevalence and geographic distribution of different Plant Functional Types (PFTs; for example, deciduous shrubs, graminoids, and lichens). Our team has produced several extensive datasets on shifts in plant communities and plant aboveground biomass (the amount of plant stems and leaves in an area) across the Arctic. They are using these datasets to analyze changes in plant communities, how plants and caribou are interacting, and how climate change is impacting Arctic ecosystems.
Leads: Dr. Scott Goetz, Dr. Logan Berner, Dr. Katie Orndahl
This research uses data from the Western Arctic Caribou Herd (WACH), located in northwestern Alaska, as a case study to examine how climate patterns, space use, and migratory behavior impact caribou survival. The WACH has declined in numbers in recent years, and researchers have observed changes in their migration pattern in response to roads, timing of the spring thaw, and other factors. So far, we see that caribou who stray far away from the core of the herd tend to have higher mortality rates, especially during the calving and post-calving periods. We found that shifts in the herd's winter range in recent years were driven, at least in part, by the herd's collective memory of poor survival on their usual winter range. Also, WACH caribou whose spring migration was impeded by a remote industrial road were less likely to survive than caribou who managed to cross or circumnavigate the road.
Lead: Dr. Elie Gurarie
Tobias Bjørkli
The goal of this project was to build a so-called "synthetic" model of caribou demographics, meaning that the model simulates population fluctuations without needing input of new data from real caribou. Using known population birth, death, immigration, and emigration rates from existing caribou data, integrated population models allow researchers to explore how different factors might affect populations in the future, or what might be causing observed patterns in historical data.
Lead: Dr. Bill Fagan
Kyle Joly
Barren-ground caribou are extremely social. Spring
migrations and calving, notably, are largely synchronized in space and time.
During periods of peak insect harassment during the summer, massive, dense aggregations of caribou can form. We are interested in using measures of caribou sociality to assess the impacts of insect harassment, even as climate change is leading to longer, warmer summers and potentially longer and more intense insect harassment seasons.
To do this, we are developing “sociality indices,” measuring the distance among individual collared caribou, and are linking these with indices of increased insect harassment. The highest peaks and
fastest variations in sociality occur during mid-summer, when insect harrasment
(from mosquitoes and parasitic warble flies) can drive caribou to seek shelter
in mass aggregation. The potential increase of insect harassment and
increased duration of insect harassment seasons due to climate change may have impacts on caribou health
and reproduction, and is a concern of high interest throughout the Arctic.
Learn more about this work on Dr. Gurarie's blog.
Lead: Dr. Elie Gurarie
Kyle Joly
The Fate of the Caribou Project is supported through numerous grants and partnerships. This is a non-exhaustive list. Any views expressed on this site or in Fate of the Caribou Project materials are those of the author(s) and do not necessarily reflect the views of our funding partners. Thank you to all of our funding partners for seeing the value and importance of our collaborative work.
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